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National energy system of Malawi is similar to many other LDCs on the Earth. Growths in the population and economic development over the past old ages have well increased the energy ingestion degree. Figure 4.1 shows the 2006 energy ingestion of Malawi compared to energy ingestion of other SADC states excepting South Africa.

Figure 4.1 Total primary energy ingestion for the SADC part excepting South Africa in 2006

4.1.1 Basic facts about Malawi

Malawi is a landlocked state located in Southern Africa and lies between 9o and 17o South of the equator. It is bounded in the North and East by Tanzania ; in the East, South and South-West by Mozambique ; and in the West by Zambia. The state has a entire country of 118,484 km2, of which 20 % is covered by H2O, chiefly Lake Malawi ( see Figure 4.2 ) . It is divided into three administrative parts ( Northern, Central and Southern ) , which, in bend, are divided into 28 territories. There are four major metropoliss viz. Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mzuzu and Zomba with population estimations of 674,448, 661,256, 133,968 and 88,314 severally ( NSO 2008 ) . Lilongwe is the capital metropolis while Blantyre is the major commercial metropolis.

The state has a semitropical clime with three seasons: ( I ) cool dry season ( May – August, average temperature of 170C, besides referred to as Winter in this study ) , ( two ) a hot-dry season ( September – October, average temperature of 290C, besides referred to as Post -winter in this study ) , and, ( three ) a warm- moisture season ( November – April, besides referred to as Pre -winter in this study ) – all these seasons have deductions on energy ingestion in footings of infinite warming, air conditioning and others. Average day-to-day solar irradiation is 21.1 MJ/m2/day. This clime allows for the growing of tropical and sub-tropical harvests including cereals, baccy, cotton, sugar and tea. The height ranges from about sea degree to over 3,000 meters above sea degree. Rainfall ranges from 800 millimeters to over 2,500 millimeters per annum in low and highlands severally.

4.1.2 Demography and major demographic policy issues

Malawi has a population of 13,077,160 ( NSO, 2008 ) , and population growing rate is estimated at 2.8 % per annum. About 84.7 % of the population resides in rural countries and the balance in urban countries. Urban refers to the four major metropoliss of Blantyre, Zomba, Lilongwe and Mzuzu ( place to 12 % of the population ) and other urban territory central offices and gazetted town planning countries ( place to the staying 3.3 % of the population ) .

Figure 4.2 Map of Malawi

In recent old ages, authorities has been advancing household planning methods and improved wellness bringing services ; nevertheless, this has non contributed to the lessening in population growing rate as of now. In implementing these policies, more accent has been on decrease of maternal and child mortality rates which have in fact contributed to population addition. For case, urban population was at 2.0 million in 2008 up from 1.4 million in 1998. The existent labour force is about 6.4 million, with approximately 85 % of it employed in the agricultural sector. And out of the existent labour force once more, about 1 million is in the service sector ( NSO 2008 ) .

4.1.3 Macro-economic state of affairs and major economic policy issues

The Government has been implementing sound macro-economic policies and tough determinations to establish rigorous financial subject since 2004. Since so, Malawi ‘s economic public presentation has continued to be singular. The state has, in the last 5 old ages, achieved Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) one-year growing rate averaging 7.0 % , and the growing tendency is shown in Figure 4.3 below.

Figure 4.3 Annual GDP growing rate

However, in the past 20 old ages i.e. from 1988 to 2008, the mean GDP growing rate was 3.7 % . In 2008, the economic system recorded a robust growing in existent GDP of 9.7 % , compared to 8.6 % in 2007. This growing rate is above the mark of 6 % for Sub-saharan Countries ( GoM 2008 ) .

The state ‘s GDP and GDP per capita are US $ 3.67 billion and US $ 270 severally. In footings of GDP part by economic sectors: service, agribusiness, fabrication, building, energy and excavation sectors contribute 50.5 % , 34.1 % , 8.3 % , 4.7 % , 1.5 % and 0.9 % severally ( GoM 2008 ) . The part of the excavation sector to the GDP is expected to increase to 5 % with the gap of U excavation in mid-2009. The mine is expected to be bring forthing on mean 1,500 metric metric tons a twelvemonth for the following 10 old ages.

The Government has put in topographic point policies to guarantee stable macroeconomic conditions. In 2008, the economic system maintained a individual digit rising prices rate of 8.7 % chiefly due to increased nutrient handiness on the local market, coupled with a stable exchange rate and lower fuel monetary values on the universe market. Interest rates that had one time reached a high figure of 35 % in 2003 were reduced to 15 % in 2008. This resulted in an addition in recognition to the private sector from 30 % of entire recognition to over 60 % .

The entire public debt, as a per centum of the GDP, decreased from 123.9 % in 2004 to merely 19.9 % in 2008. Malawi besides managed to cut down its domestic debt from 25 % of GDP in 2004 to 11.5 % in 2008. During the same period, foreign debt as a per centum of GDP, reduced from 112.6 % in 2004 to merely 16.5 % in 2008. This was a consequence of Malawi ‘s making under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries ( HIPC ) that freed the state from its monolithic debt load, which resulted in the release of the much needed resources for poorness decrease enterprises. Similarly, the budget shortage that had been every bit high as 7.8 % of GDP in 2003/2004 Fiscal Year averaged less than 3 % of GDP in the last 5 old ages ( Annual Economic Report, 2009 ) .

4.1.4 Major environmental policy issues

The National Environmental Policy calls for responsible direction of the environment in order to forestall debasement of the environment ; supply a healthy life and working environment for the people of Malawi ; accord full acknowledgment to the rights of future coevalss by agencies of environmental protection, and ; preserve and heighten the biological diverseness of Malawi. The National Environmental Policy, which was adopted in 2004, therefore provides an overall model through which sectoral policies are reviewed to measure their consistence with the rules of sound environmental direction and sustainable development. Since its acceptance, several environmental related policies have been developed and implemented including: forestry, piscaries, H2O, land usage and direction and energy policies.

Energy affects all facets of development, including societal, economic, and environment. No meaningful socio-economic development would be attained without sustained supply of energy to run into the demands of the family, commercial and industrial sectors. The demand for energy ingestion for both domestic and industrial ingestion is increasing which has put force per unit area on bing energy beginnings such as woods. The energy production procedure has possible impacts on the environment, peculiarly on deforestation, emanations, and alteration of landform. Malawi ‘s energy balance is dominated by biomass which accounts for 97 % of the entire energy produced in the state ( National Energy Policy, 2003 ) . It is estimated that forest resources in Malawi are worsening at a really alarming rate of 2.6 % per annum. The energy sector ‘s part to deforestation is chiefly related to the wood obtained from unsustainable beginnings for wood coal production and firewood despite handiness of policies and ordinances forbiding un-licensed production of wood coal and film editing of autochthonal trees for fuelwood.

Since Malawi ‘s electricity is chiefly produced from hydropower, its production procedure does non negatively affect the environment. However, due to frequent power black-outs, the electricity market has witnessed an rush in the figure of companies, establishments and family utilizing standby generator-sets to run into portion of their electricity demands, with a great potency in increasing emanation degrees.

The aim of the energy policy is to run into national energy demands with increased efficiency and environmental sustainability.

Energy demands for Malawi

Figure 4.4 shows the energy usage profile of Malawi for the period 1990 to 2006. Figure 4.5 shows per capita energy ingestion.

Figure 4.4 Energy usage profile for Malawi 1990 to 2006

Figure 4.5 Per capita energy ingestion for Malawi 1990 to 2006

In 2006 entire primary energy ingestion for Malawi was 0.025 Quadrillion Btu, per capita entire primary energy ingestion was 1.9 million Btu, crude oil ingestion was 0.0142 Quadrillion Btu, and coal ingestion was 0.0001 Quadrillion Btu ( International Energy Annual 2006 ) . This compares unfavorably with energy ingestion in upper-middle income states and high income economic systems.

Much of Malawi ‘s energy is consumed in traditional end-use and transition engineerings ( for illustration, firewood and wood coal cookstoves, baccy bring arounding barns ) whose efficiencies are comparatively low at 10 – 12 % . Because entree to modern commercial fuels like electricity is really low and because of low per capita disposable incomes, merely a really little proportion of Malawian families use high efficiency ranges.

The family sector is the dominant energy user, accounting for approximately 84 % of entire ingestion. The staying 16 % is used in the agricultural and natural resources sector ( 8 % ) , conveyance ( 4 % ) , industry and excavation ( 2 % ) , and other societal services ( 2 % ) ( see Figure 4.6 ) . Biomass, chiefly firewood and wood coal, is its beginning and histories for an estimated 93 % of energy demand. Liquid fuels, electricity, coal and other renewables contribute 3.5 % , 2.3 % , 1.0 % and 0.2 % , severally, to the entire energy demand. Rural families account for 58 % of fuel wood ingestion, urban families use 12 % .

Urban families use more firewood per capita than their rural opposite numbers because they normally use wood coal. Industries such as baccy and tea estates account for 20 % , brick devising, fish smoke and other small-scale bungalow industries use the staying 10 % . An estimated 48 % of fuel wood is from sustainable output, but 47 % is taken from natural forests and is hence unsustainable. The staying 5 % comes from other biomass beginnings, including harvest and industrial residues ( GoM 2003 ) .

84 %

8 %

4 %

2 %

2 %

Family

Agribusiness

Conveyance

Industry

Other

Figure 4.6 Total energy ingestion in 1996 by each economic sector

Conveyance is the chief consumer of commercial energy ( liquid fuels, electricity and coal ) at 43 % , followed by industry and excavation ( 19 % ) , other services ( 18 % ) , agribusiness ( 12 % ) and families ( 8 % ) ( see Figure 4.7 ) . The conveyance sector is besides the largest consumer of liquid fuels. Paraffin ( kerosine ) and LPG are of import cookery fuels in many developing states, but they are seldom used in Malawi chiefly because of their comparatively high monetary value. Paraffin and tapers are used for illuming, chiefly by families without electricity or during blackouts.

Figure 4.7 Commercial energy ingestion by sector, 1996

Liquid fuels and gas history for about two-thirds of entire commercial energy ingestion and a limited storage capacity makes Malawi really vulnerable to oil monetary value fluctuations and to deluging in neighbouring states, which may take to interrupted supplies. GoM anticipates that, for the foreseeable hereafter, most of Malawi ‘s population will go on to be smallholders with limited disposable incomes and reliant on traditional agriculture engineerings. It besides acknowledges that assorted energy transition and end-use engineerings have, for a long clip, remained inactive because of inflexible financial policies, a deficiency of inducements, low investing, a civilization of limited entrepreneurship and other societal properties.

This state of affairs is non sustainable if Malawi is to win in its end of exciting economic development and cut downing poorness. It calls, hence, for a extremist paradigm displacement in development attacks. Significant investings and research in energy engineerings are required to transform national economic system and modernize agribusiness in general and agro-processing engineerings in peculiar. More originative financial policies are needed to advance greater entree to modern beginnings of energy and more energy efficient transition engineerings and end-use contraptions.

For patterning intents the twelvemonth 2008 was selected as the base twelvemonth in this work. The concluding energy balance for Malawi in the base twelvemonth ( 2008 ) was 4,125.97 kTOE as shown in Table 4.1 below.

Table 4.1 Energy Balance for the Base Year ( 2008 ) in kTOE ( GoM 2010 )

Note: Specific usage of electricity refers to those electricity uses that are non-substitutable such as lighting and powering electric contraptions and Non-specific usage of electricity refers to those electricity uses that can be substituted such as warming, processing and cookery.

The per centum portion of entire energy ingestion by energy beginnings in 2008 is shown in Figure 4.8. The portions are based on figures presented in Table 4.1 above. The figure shows that there is high incursion of traditional fuels while solar is the lowest.

Figure 4.8 Total energy ingestion in 2008 by energy beginning

The per centum portion of entire energy ingestion by each economic sector in 2008 is shown in Figure 4.9. This shows a similar ingestion form as was the instance in 1996. The family sector remains the major consumer of the entire primary energy followed by the conveyance sector.

The portion of crude oil merchandises ingestion by each sector is shown in Figure 5.10. The conveyance sector has the largest portion of 73.96 % followed by the agribusiness sector, which has a portion of 17.67 % . The family sector has a portion of 5.23 % , which is chiefly kerosene that is used for illuming and cookery.

Coal merchandises ingestion is shown in Figure 4.11. Most of the coal is consumed in the fabrication sector which has a portion of 97.48 % . The other sectors that use coal are the services and agribusiness at 1.00 % and 1.52 % , severally.

Figure 4.9 Total energy ingestion in 2008 by economic sector

Figure 4.10 Petroleum merchandises ingestion in 2008 by economic sector

Figure 4.11 Coal merchandises ingestion in 2008 by economic sector

Electricity ingestion is shown in Figure 4.12. The family sector consumes most of the electricity whose portion is at 37.49 % followed by the fabrication sector at 30.56 % and services sector at 22.41 % . This indicates that the edifice sector ( family and services ) consume more than approximately 70 % of the entire electricity which in 2008 was 104.82 kTOE ( see Table 4.1 ) .

Figure 4.12 Electricity ingestion in 2008 by economic sector

Figure 4.13 Traditional fuels ingestion in 2008 by economic sector

Traditional fuels are used chiefly in the family sector which has a portion of 93.41 % ( see Figure 4.13 ) . The other sectors are agriculture, fabrication and services at 3.02 % , 1.37 % and 2.20 % , severally. The entire traditional fuels ingestion in 2008 was 3,640 kTOE ( see Table 4.1 ) .

4.3 Modeling national energy system of Malawi

The national energy system of Malawi can be handily modeled utilizing the available mold tools discussed in the old chapters, provided that conforming informations sets, expertness and institutional model are made available. Following Sahir ( 2007 ) , the development of an autochthonal theoretical account is necessary in order to turn to and analyse issues of the energy subsystems of the state in an incorporate environment. A dependable national energy database is a requirement for developing, keeping and using the autochthonal theoretical account. The undermentioned subdivisions describe some structural options about the autochthonal IES theoretical account for Malawi, perceived by the writer on the footing of literature reappraisal and the analysis of the predominating energy profile of the state.

4.3.1 Model range and format

A full graduated table integrated national theoretical account must be able to analyse all energy issues taking into history all energy issues in the national economic system, technological base of the state and the environmental concerns. It may therefore resemble to an Engineering-Energy-Environment-Economy ( E4 ) theoretical account proposed by Terry et Al. ( 2005 ) for the UK. Figure 4.14 shows the thematic interactions within their proposed theoretical account, and Figure 4.15 shows their word picture of E4 energy system representation.

An E4 theoretical account shown in Figure 4.15 may be the ultimate end, but with the present position of the national statistics such a sophisticated theoretical account can neither be developed nor

Economy

as in national histories

Energy

as in energy statistics

TECHNOLOGY specifications & A ; costs

ENVIRONMENTAL EMISSIONS

as in environmental statistics

Monetary values and activity

Feedback

Damage to wellness and edifices e.g. industrial emanations of SFC

Low-carbon processes & A ; merchandises

Energy utilizing equipment

Fuel usage

Pollution suspension equipment

Figure 4.14 A simplified representation of E4 interactions ( Terry et al. , 2005 )

INNOVATION TECHNICAL CHANGE

( Research, development, presentation, diffusion )

HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES

( solar panels, PV

ENERGY DEMAND TECHNOLOGIES

ENERGY SERVICES ( heat,

visible radiation,

power, mobility )

Family

Technology FOR ENERGY

Transformation

( e.g. power coevals )

Conversion

( e.g. oil refineries )

Transmission/ Distribution

Infrastructure

Technology FOR ENERGY EXTRACTION/ PRODUCTION

( e.g. excavation, boring, pumping, farming, forestry equipment

On-site coevals e.g. CHP

ENERGY DEMAND TECHNOLOGIES

ENERGY SERVICES ( heat, visible radiation, power, mobility )

NON-ENERGY PRODUCTION SECTORS

NATURAL RESOURCES

Emission to air and H2O

SOLAR ENERGY

Wind

Water

FOSSIL FUELS

Uranium

Biomass

SOLAR ENERGY

Wind

Water

SOLAR ENERGY

Wind

Water

Figure 4.15 Conceptual representation of E4 energy theoretical account ( Terry et al. , 2005 )

maintained or implemented. However, the writer feels that in malice of the restraints of inadequate or hapless quality informations, the petroleum theoretical accounts can be developed and used for energy planning and analysis to a great advantage. The petroleum theoretical accounts are likely to be refined over clip, with betterment in the constraining parametric quantities fostered by the growing of consciousness and publicity of analytical thought.

4.3.2 Modeling strategy for the autochthonal theoretical account

The general construct of the energy flow in the national economic system is shown in Figure 4.16 ( Sahir 2007 ) below. Primary energy supplies, e.g. coal, hydro and renewables, are extracted from the energy resources and are subjected to conversion/transformation procedures, e.g. electric power coevals. Energy bearers, e.g. electricity, are so supplied to the terminal usage devices, which convert them into energy services, e.g. heat, visible radiation, comfort and mobility, for use in different sectors of the economic system.

Energy Resources

Conversion/

Transformation

End Use Conversion

Sectors of Economy

Primary Energy Supplies

Energy Carriers

Energy Servicess

Figure 4.16 General construct for patterning national energy system ( Sahir 2007 )

The construct in Figure 4.16 can be expanded into separate energy supply and demand theoretical accounts into assorted degrees of item. Figure 4.17 shows the energy supply theoretical account for Malawi. It should be noted that Malawi has no domestic refineries, so it imports 97 % of its refined crude oil merchandises and the balance of 3 % is contributed by locally produced ethyl alcohol, which is sold straight to the oil companies for intermixing with gasoline on a maximal 20:80 ratio of ethanol-petrol. The electric power coevals includes the grid every bit good as the off-grid coevals installations. The renewable beginnings such as solar PV, air current and micro hydro power coevals systems can barely lend to the grid coevals to a significantly comparable degree, and the present informations handiness restraints do non let their elaborate intervention in an overall supply theoretical account. However, a separate theoretical account can be developed for the renewable supply systems for a elaborate analysis. For the intents of this work the Malawi national economic system is represented by six sectors with regard to the energy usage as shown in Figure 4.17.

Electrical Power Servicess

Imports

Petroleum merchandises

Coal

Coal

Ethyl alcohol

Biomass

Renewables

Hydro

Electric Power Generation

Heat

& A ;

Mechanical Power Servicess

Lighting

Non energy utilizations

LPG

Diesel, Petrol,

Energy resource

Transmission/Distribution

End usage services

Conversion

Residential

Commercial

Agribusiness

Industry

Conveyance

Other

Final Energy utilizing sectors

National Economy

Autochthonal supplies

Kerosene

Figure 4.17 Energy supply theoretical account for Malawi

Figure 4.17 shows that most of the energy bearers are used to supply heat and mechanical power for mobility. Electricity, which is chiefly hydro-generated, and kerosine are used for lighting, and electrical services are provided by electricity entirely. Electricity is besides generated utilizing crude oil merchandises ( e.g. Diesel ) and renewables, such as solar. It deserving observing that the proviso of electrical services determines the societal and economic development degrees of a state. Figures 4.18 and 4.19 show the energy usage theoretical accounts in the family and commercial sectors, severally.

Figure 4.18 Household sector energy usage theoretical account

Energy Type

Activities

Displays/

Ad

Appliances

Water

Heating

Lighting

Solar

Space

Heating/

Cooling

Wood

Cooking

Electricity

Figure 4.19 Commercial sector energy usage theoretical account

The above energy usage theoretical accounts can be farther expanded into activity degree theoretical accounts and device degree theoretical accounts for a elaborate analysis. However, the more elaborate analysis requires more elaborate informations sets and these can merely be made available through institutional degree undertaking attempt. Soon, informations for energy bearer inputs to the two sectors, family and commercial, was collected and is available in aggregative signifier. This being the instance and for the range of this thesis, the writer is limited to utilizing the information sets that were collected during the research period. The activity degree theoretical accounts for the residential sector are shown in the Figures 4.20 to 4.24 below. Similar activity degree theoretical accounts for the other sectors can be developed every bit good.

Figure 4.20 Cooking theoretical account in the family sector

Figure 4.21 Lighting theoretical account in the family sector

Figure 4.22 Space heating/cooling ( comfort ) theoretical account in the family sector

Figure 4.23 Water heating theoretical account in the family sector

Figure 4.24 Appliances theoretical account in the family sector

Device degree patterning based on energy-exergy relationship and technology attack is besides possible, but it requires a batch of proficient informations. For a macro degree analysis, like national energy planning, such as micro degree inside informations are barely considered ( Sahir 2007 ) ; nevertheless, for a engineering subsystem patterning, such inside informations are basically needed. However, the focal point of this thesis is limited to incorporate energy system theoretical accounts ; hence facets of engineering appraisal and environmental impact analysis are non considered in the mold attack here-in.

Previous undertakings on developing autochthonal IEP theoretical accounts have considered the inclusion of transition engineerings, such as refinery subsystem theoretical account and electricity coevals subsystem theoretical account. Malawi imports refined crude oil merchandises, and hence a treatment of a refinery subsystem theoretical account will non try here-in, but it is of import to include a treatment of the electricity coevals subsystem theoretical account.

The electric power coevals theoretical account has several inputs, both primary and secondary energy bearers, and a individual end product, electricity. Figure 4.25 ( Sahir 2007 ) shows a conventional electricity coevals theoretical account. Some of the input energy bearers are yet to be explored and implemented at full graduated table in Malawi. Malawi has U which is being mined for exporting intents but can every bit good be used for atomic power coevals.

Figure 4.25 Electricity coevals theoretical account ( Sahir 2007 )

4.4 Final energy supply-consumption theoretical account of Malawi

The single mold strategies developed above may be combined together to organize an incorporate theoretical account for the full national energy system. However, for the range of this thesis, the mold strategies were tested for the family and commercial sectors. The testing was done through informations that was collected through family and commercial edifices energy ingestion studies that were conducted in Malawi in 2010. Some of the informations were taken from authorities of Malawi and international bureaus documented beginnings. The chief intent of this pilot theoretical account was to show the feasibleness of the autochthonal theoretical account development option in Malawi and besides to demo a few glances of the sort of analysis that can be expected from the autochthonal integrated energy system theoretical account usage. The inside informations of this theoretical account are presented here-in-after.

The conventional theoretical account of the concluding energy supply in the signifier of energy bearers, and the ingestion in the family and commercial sectors ; excluding the inside informations of energy services ( shown in Figure 4.17 ) was developed and is shown in Figure 4.26.

Figure 4.26 Final energy supply-consumption theoretical account in the family and commercial sectors

The above relationship can be simplified by utilizing a transit theoretical account presuming that the concluding energy types are “ beginnings ” and the economic sectors are “ finishs ” ( see Table 4.2 ) . The other sectors of economic system have been included for completeness intents of the national economic system. The rows in the tabular array are identified by the energy bearers i and the columns by the economic sectors j. Each cell in the informations country can be identified by the alone values of an ordered brace. Assuming a consistent unit of energy, i.e. kTOE, makes it possible to linearly add the cell contents. The concluding energy supply-consumption informations is shown in Table 4.1, which is represented once more in Table 4.2 in the transit theoretical account format.

Table 4.2 Transportation theoretical account of the energy supply-consumption balance for Malawi 2008 ( kTOE )

4.5 Using concluding energy supply-consumption theoretical account as an IEP theoretical account

The above developed model has been transformed into an IEP theoretical account format and this theoretical account is used to analyse the hereafter energy options of the state with mention to the past tendencies presented by the published energy informations and the future marks and authorities policies contained in the MGDS, Vision 2020 and NEP.

The supply and demand faculties in the present theoretical account are interlinked through the energy supply-consumption balances ( of the format shown in Tables 4.1 and 4.2 ) for the several old ages included in the past informations and selected for the future analysis. Linear summing up of the past ingestion or future demand of a selected energy bearer in the seven sectors of the economic system ( e.g. several row sums in Table 4.2 ) determines the supply, while additive summing up of the past ingestion or future demand of all energy bearers in a given sector ( e.g. several column sums in Table 4.2 ) determines the demand. The selected representation strategy of the theoretical account, hence, non merely allows a simplistic mechanism of incorporating the supply and demand through the database, but besides provides convenient integrating mechanisms for analytical and input/output faculties.

4.5.1 Analytic faculty description

The analytical faculty of an IEP is the most of import faculty, which provides mechanisms to execute multi-lateral analyses for serving the aims of the theoretical account. The chief end of the present theoretical account was to show the capableness of energy theoretical accounts for incorporate energy planning in Malawi. In order to leave a practical significance to the theoretical account and to supply standard proof mentions to the consequences, the existent yesteryear and present energy statistics exhibited in the official publications and the hereafter energy sector marks set in the MGDS and Malawi Government energy policy were selected for the analysis.

The types of analyses intended through the present theoretical account include:

analysis of the past information to cognize the energy carrier-wise supply and sector-wise demand tendencies and the energy mix inside informations ;

calculating future demand and supplies based on the tendencies established through past informations analysis ;

analysis of the scenarios presented by the MGDS marks and comparing of the projections with trend-based prognosiss ; and

analysis of the energy-mix options with regard to the comparative costs and the environmental impacts of the energy bearers.

MAED energy patterning tool was found to be sufficient to run into the demands of points ( a ) , ( B ) and ( degree Celsius ) . However, for point ( vitamin D ) above, a multi-objective additive scheduling ( MOLP ) theoretical account, integrating Analytic Hierarchy Process ( AHP ) , has been proposed, which allows a multiple nonsubjective preparations and gives a assortment of alternate solutions.

4.5.2 MAED methodological analysis

MAED – D is a simulation theoretical account designed for measuring the energy demand of a state or universe part in the medium and long term. The theoretical account is based on “ scenario attack ” which is viewed as a consistent description of a possible long-run development form of a state, characterized chiefly in footings of long term way of governmental socio-economic policy.

In drumhead the MAED- D methodological analysis comprises the undermentioned sequence of operations:

Disaggregation of the entire energy demand of the state or part into a big figure of end-use classs in a consistent mode ;

Designation of the societal, economic and technological parametric quantities which affect each end-use class of the energy demand ;

Establishing in mathematical footings the relationships which relate energy demand and the factors impacting this demand ;

Developing ( consistent ) scenarios of societal, economic and technological development for the given state ;

Evaluation of the energy demand ensuing from each scenario.

This attack takes particularly into history the development of the societal demands of the population, such as the demand for infinite warming, lighting, transit, air conditioning, and this as a map of the distribution of population into urban and rural countries ; the industrial policies of the state ( development stressed on certain types of industries ) ; and the state ‘s policies refering transit, lodging etc. , every bit good as the technological development. It besides takes into history, the development of the possible markets of each signifier of concluding energy: electricity, fossil fuels ( coal, gas, oil ) , solar etc.

Six economic sectors are considered in MAED-D: Agribusiness, Construction, Mining, Manufacturing, Service ( including conveyance ) and Energy. Agriculture, Construction, Mining, Manufacturing and Service sectors can be farther subdivided into up to ten sub-sectors to let grouping of the economic subdivisions with similar energy strengths. Energy sector is used merely to depict the GDP formation. Its energy inputs, for transitions to other concluding energy signifiers, are non accounted for by the MAED theoretical account, which deals merely with the concluding and utile energy demand projection.

The development of the construction of GDP formation is one of the impulsive factors of greater importance in the theoretical account. The GDP formation construction, expressed in footings of the portion of the value added part to GDP by each sector, is specified straight as portion of the scenario. Likewise, the portions of value added by each sub-sector in the entire value added by each chief economic sector are besides specified straight as scenario elements.

In this work the energy demand is calculated individually for the Household and Service sectors. The computation of the energy demand of each of these sectors is performed in a similar mode. Harmonizing to this process, the demand for each end-use class of energy is driven by one or several socio-economic and technological parametric quantities, whose values are given as portion of the scenarios.

MAED-el converts the one-year electricity demand for each economic sector ( considered for demand prediction in MAED-D ) to the hourly electricity demand during the twelvemonth. This faculty considers four economic sectors, viz. Industry, Transport, Household and Service and up to six clients for each of these sectors for computation of hourly electricity demand.

Assorted transition factors are used to cipher the hourly demand from the one-year electricity demand. These factors characterise the alterations in the electricity ingestion with regard to the mean electricity ingestion during a twelvemonth, hebdomad or a twenty-four hours. This faculty converts the entire one-year electricity demand of a sector to the electricity burden of the sector in a given hr, twenty-four hours and hebdomad of the twelvemonth by taking into history the undermentioned factors:

The tendency of the mean growing rate of the electricity demand during the twelvemonth.

The alterations in the degree of electricity ingestion owing to the assorted seasons of the twelvemonth ( this fluctuation is reflected on a hebdomadal footing in this Module ) .

The alterations in the degree of electricity ingestion owing to the type of twenty-four hours being considered ( i.e. working yearss, weekends, particular vacations, etc )

The hourly fluctuation of electricity ingestion during a peculiar type of twenty-four hours.

The tendency of mean growing rate of electricity demand is already known from the consequences of MAED – D. The fluctuation of electricity burden of a given sector by hr, twenty-four hours and hebdomad is characterised by three sets of transition coefficients that are defined for 24 hours in a twenty-four hours, by type of yearss in a hebdomad, and for each hebdomad in a twelvemonth. The merchandise of all the coefficients, along with the coefficients for the mean growing rate of electricity demand, multiplied by the mean electricity demand of a peculiar sector consequence in the electric burden of that sector in a peculiar hr. Knowing all these coefficients in a peculiar twelvemonth allows us to cipher the chronological hourly electricity burden for 8,760 hours of that twelvemonth.

Similar computations are repeated for each sector of the economic system ( Industry, Transport, Household and service ) and the tonss for same hr in all sectors are aggregated together to bring forth the hourly burden values of the entire burden imposed on the power system in a peculiar twelvemonth. The graphical representation of these hourly tonss in diminishing order produces the well- known hourly load continuance curve for the electric power system.

The transition coefficients used for these computations are obtained from statistical analysis based on the past operating experience for the power sector under consideration.

4.5.3 MOLP-AHP theoretical account preparation

Developing a engineering rich energy supply and demand optimisation theoretical account for minimising entire energy system cost presents a multi-criteria determination devising job with the aims being quantitative and/or qualitative. Solving such a job requires an incorporate attack. In this subdivision an integrated theoretical account utilizing LP and AHP is being proposed for energy resource options. It should be noted that the energy resources for the theoretical account have been chosen on the footing of their handiness, feasibleness of use, and informations handiness in Malawi. With this in head the range of the present theoretical account has been restricted to the scenarios ensuing from the analysis of the base instance informations ( Table 4.1 and Table 4.2 ) and the optimisation of inter-energy permutation options based on these scenarios harmonizing to the selected standards. The conventional representation of LP-AHP energy optimisation theoretical account ( adapted from S. Iniyan & A ; K. Sumathy, 2000 ) theoretical account preparation is shown in Figure 4.27. The mathematical preparation is described here-in-after.

Figure 4.27 MOLP-AHP energy optimisation theoretical account representation ( Iniyan & A ; Sumathy, 2000 ) .

The multi-objective job can be written in the undermentioned general signifier:

Optimize topic to

Where optimise bases for the designation of non-dominated solutions, are the n aims to be considered, represents the restraint set formed by the demands of assorted energy end-uses, handiness of resources and other relevant restraints, and is an l-component column vector represented by

Definition of Variables

Let be the variable to be used for the energy analysis. This variable represents the sum of energy to be met by fuel used in end-use device for end-use. Table 4.3 shows the possible combinations of used in the analysis. It should be noted that this list is non thorough but represents major fuels, end-use devices and end-uses in Malawi residential and commercial sectors.

Table 4.3 Some possible combinations of

Fuel

End-use device

End-use

1. Firewood

1. Tripod range

2. Traditional range

3. Efficient fuel wood range

1. Cooking

3. Space warming

4. Water warming

2. Charcoal

4. Charcoal range

1. Cooking

3. Space warming

4. Water warming

5. Appliances

6. Appliances

3. Kerosene

6. Kerosene stove

1. Cooking

7. Kerosene lamp

2. Lighting

4. Electricity

5. Solar PV

8. Electric bulb

2. Lighting

9. Electric stove/Hot home base

10. Electric warmer

1. Cooking

3. Space warming

4. Water warming

5. Appliances

6. Appliances

When energy resources need to be collected and delivered to the users in the families and commercial edifices, so the impression of external efficiency becomes of import. The external efficiency can be defined as the efficiency of aggregation and transition of an energy bearer into useable signifier. The other efficiency is the end-use devices efficiency, . This efficiency defines the ratio of energy that is delivered by a proper terminal usage device to execute energy service to the energy Federal to the end-use device. The external efficiency and the end-use device efficiency of different devices are given in Table 4.4.

Table 4.4 External efficiency and end-use efficiency

Fuel

External efficiency ( % )

End-use device

Device efficiency ( % )

Firewood

95

Tripod range

13

Charcoal

13

Traditional range

11

Kerosene

90

Efficient fuelwood range

20

Grid electricity

75

Charcoal range

25

Solar PV

5

Kerosene range

45

Kerosene lamp

100

Electric Heating stove

100

Electric bulb

100

The efficiency of kerosine lamp, electric bulb and warming range is really high. A 100 % efficiency of a device refers to the efficiency of energy use. For illustration, if kerosene lamp is the lone device used for illuming so the sum of kerosine consumed does non depend on the strength of visible radiation, but depends on the figure of kerosene lamps and kerosene ingestion per lamp-hour. Similarly, if kerosene lamps are to be replaced by electric bulbs, so the replacing is based on the figure of bulbs to be installed and non on the strength of visible radiation they produce. Therefore, it is assumed that energy resources used for illuming are to the full utilised. However, if there is an option of replacing the bing kerosine lamps with an efficient one ( such as replacing of wick lamps by hurricane lamps ) or replacing of incandescent bulbs with fluorescent bulbs, so the strength of visible radiation produced by these devices should besides be considered.

Model premises

The undermentioned premises were made for the theoretical account:

One-dimensionality of variables: Decision variable fluctuation with regard to all standards and restraints were assumed to be additive.

Invariability of informations: Datas that were used for the theoretical account are, every bit far as possible, chosen for the base period ( 2008 ) . Whenever the information chosen are non for the base twelvemonth ( 2008 ) , it is assumed that there has been no important alteration and that the values do non change amongst the metropoliss of Malawi. This premise is peculiarly of import when obtaining informations for those energy bearers for which informations are non available for the basal twelvemonth. In some instances comparative figures and non absolute figures are relevant. Hence this premise does non restrict the pertinence of the theoretical account.

Consequence of external factors such as civilization, life-style, etc, will be negligible i.e. the informations were assumed to be a true contemplation of the ranking of energy options/carriers entirely on the footing of the relevant standards.

Single determination shaper instance: For the instance of subjective variables, a individual determination shaper was assumed.

Objective maps

The purpose of any authorities is to maximize the societal public assistance of its people. Economic efficiency, equity and environmental quality are the chief ideals of societal public assistance ( Cohn 1978, Pokharel 1997 ) . However, such qualitative thoughts should be quantified for planning intents ( Changkong and Haimes 1983 ) . This subdivision describes seven aims that are considered in this thesis together with their mathematical preparations. All of them refer to aims which are valuable for the overall energy state of affairs in Malawi.

( a ) Minimization of cost

The chief factor impacting the pick of energy resource in the family and commercial sectors is chiefly cost-effectiveness. The term ‘cost ‘ refers to the existent cost of conveying the energy bearer to the end-use point. Let be the mean cost of energy bearer, so the aim of cost minimisation is represented as follows:

( 4.1 )

( B ) Minimization of usage of fuel wood merchandises and crude oil merchandises

Malawi ‘s energy balance is dominated by biomass ( firewood, wood coal, agricultural wastes and industrial wastes ) , which account for 97 % of the entire primary energy supply. The family and commercial sectors to a great extent depend on fuel wood merchandises which contribute to deforestation. Hence there is a demand of protecting the environment and to minimise the depletion of forest wealth.

Malawi spends a big sum of foreign exchange by importing 97 % of its crude oil merchandises demands. Therefore, it is desirable to utilize the crude oil merchandises to a lower limit in the family and commercial sectors.

The nonsubjective map for the two issues may be formulated as

( 4.2 )

( degree Celsius ) Maximization of usage of renewable and locally available energy resources

Malawi has of late been confronting jobs with its energy supply-system. The jobs include, among others, power supply dislocations and non-availability of foreign exchange for the importing of crude oil merchandises. This calls for the state ‘s family and commercial sectors to turn to the usage of renewable and locally available energy resources to cut down the exposure of the state energy supply-system. This aim is represented as:

( 4.3 )

( vitamin D ) Maximization of safety, comfort and convenience when utilizing energy resources

Choice of energy resource usage in the family and commercial sectors depends on the grade of safety, comfort and convenience of that resource. The end is to take the safest, the most comfy and most convenient resources in run intoing the energy demands ; and this is hence formulated as

( 4.4 )

where are the coefficients stand foring the grade of safety, comfort and convenience of the energy resources, which were besides obtained utilizing the AHP procedure.

Constraints

( a ) Energy demand

The first set of restraints of the proposed theoretical account is based on the minimal energy demands in the base twelvemonth 2008 in the families and commercial edifices in Malawi. In the basal twelvemonth Malawi had a sum of 2.792 million families ( 2.531 million rural families and 0.261million urban families ) ; and the commercial sector had a sum of 7.680 million M2 with a labour force of 0.960 in the ( DoE, 2010 ) . The entire energy demands of the different terminal utilizations have been computed utilizing standard informations available in the literature ( DoE 2010, ESCOM, NSO 2008 ) .

Let be the energy demand for an end-use, so the restraint could be formulated as follows.

( 4.5 )

( B ) Energy supply sustainability

The 2nd set of restraints is formulated based on the bound on the local sustainable supply of energy resources in Malawi. For illustration, there is a bound on fuel wood output from wood and residues yield from cultivated land.

Let be the bound for the supply of local energy resources, , so the restraint can be written as

( 4.6 )

( degree Celsius ) Limit on engineering

Not all available energy resources could be converted to want secondary beginning. For illustration, distribution of CFLs or EFSs to all families may non be executable and desirable in the specified planning period.

Let be the upper bound on the potency of bring forthing or providing extra energy by utilizing a executable engineering. Then the restraint could be written as follows.

( 4.7 )

( vitamin D ) Limit on imported energy beginnings

Deficits of fuel may be created with the bound on the local sustainable supply and minimisation of environmental quality. In such instances, the option would be to import energy. The importing of energy bearers may supplement the local energy supply. However, determination shapers may desire to enforce some limitations on the usage of such fuels.

Let be the limitation on the usage of fuel, so the restraint ca be formulated as follows.

( 4.8 )

4.5.3 Sensitivity analysis

The parametric quantities used in the analysis may alter with clip due to alterations in engineering and besides due to macro economic impacts, such as alterations in state ‘s economic policies and rising prices. Furthermore, the estimations of input informations depend to a great extent on the informations aggregation methods ( Sinha et al. 1994 in Pokharel 1997, Benayuon et Al. 1971 ) . Due to these uncertainnesss, the input informations and parametric quantities might alter, taking to a alteration in the ideal solution and via media solution. Consequently, the pick of the best via media solution might besides alter.

In this thesis first-order sensitiveness analysis is used by utilizing GAMS additive scheduling bundle. The first-order sensitiveness analysis on the ideal solution is provided by fringy costs ( MC ) . These costs define the incline of alteration in the value of the nonsubjective map caused by a little alteration in an input variable. For illustration, if alterations in the values of the nonsubjective maps are to be tested against a little alteration in the demand for an end-use, the MC is defined by Hwang and Masud ( 1979 ) as follows:

( 4.9 )

where is the optimal value of the nonsubjective map. Two points to see when utilizing this sensitiveness analysis are:

If the MC value is higher, so the sensitiveness of the input parametric quantity being tested is besides higher. In such instances care needs to be given while gauging such input parametric quantities.

When MCs are equal or about equal to 0, so the resources associated with these values ( for restraints or variables ) are referred to as non-scarce resources. Changes in the values of such restraints or variables do non hold much impact on alterations in the optimality of the solution.

Sensitivity of nonsubjective maps to the input informations and parametric quantities can be ranked by normalising fringy values. A normalized value shows the per centum alteration in the map for one per centum alteration to the input parametric quantity. Equation ( 4.10 ) gives the relation to cipher normalized value for.

( 4.10 )

In the present work, the incorporate energy systems theoretical account is implemented to analyze the energy resource allotment in Malawi residential and commercial sectors. The sensitiveness analysis is carried out for both sectors and presented in Chapter 6.

The incorporate energy systems theoretical account

Figure 4.28 illustrates the proposed incorporate energy systems theoretical account for Malawi. In the theoretical account informations are first analyzed utilizing MAED theoretical account and so converted to an EIS. The end product of the EIS is Malawi ‘s energy balance information. This information together with other parametric quantities from the AHP is analyzed to obtain an optimum solution for execution. Such a solution is expected to give way on the preparation of an energy policy for the residential and commercial sectors in Malawi.

DATA COLLECTION

MAED DATABASE

AHP

End product

ENERGY INFORMATION SYSTEM

MULTI-OBJECTIVE

Analysis

Energy

Policy

Figure 4.28 Proposed incorporate energy systems theoretical account for Malawi

Drumhead

This chapter has outlined the energy demands for the Malawi energy system by looking at energy ingestion in different sectors of the Malawi economic system. The chapter has presented a strategy for the development of a local integrated energy system theoretical account. The accent of the theoretical account has been in the residential and commercial/services sectors.

Chapter 5 discusses premises and consequences for the development of future energy demand projections, and the consequences for the MOLP are discussed individually in Chapter 6.

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